Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface: Tumultuous Times
Ch. 1 Embracing Uncertainty
Ch. 2 Preparing the Mind
Ch. 3 Experiencing Multiple Futures
Ch. 4 Preparing for the Unknown
Ch. 5 Building a Robust Strategic Vision
Ch. 6 Creating Flexible Options
Ch. 7 Dynamic Monitoring and Adjustment
Ch. 8 Implementation: Living with Uncertainty
Ch. 9 Case Study: Flying through Turbulence
Conclusion: Navigating the Future
App. A The Psychology of Uncertainty
App. B Uncertainty Tool Kit
Notes
Index