Canvassing for the April parliamentary and July presidential elections has begun in earnest. The nationalist-secular parties are expected to retain their dominance in parliament, but the Islamic parties are likely to increase their share of the vote. The outcome of the presidential election is less predictable; the incumbent president, Megawati Soekarnoputri, currently tops the opinion polls. However, this may be by default, reflecting the absence of popular and credible alternatives. There will be few economic policy initiatives untill after the election period, but Bank Indonesia (the central bank) will take a leading role in ensuring stability in macroeconomic policy. Real GDB growth is expected to strengthen in 2004 in line with stronger OECD export demand and election-related spending, but is forecast to weaken slightly in 2005. Inflation is forecast to average 5.5% in 2004-05, and the currency is expected to appreciate modestly. The trade and current accounts will remain in surplus, but their shares of GDP will fall.