Although mainstream nationalist-secular parties have retained their dominant role in the House of Representatives (DPR, the lower house), the April 2004 election was noteworthy for the gains achieved by new, smaller parties. Support for the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle, formerly the largest party in the DPR, slumped, suggesting that the president, Megawati Soekarnoputri, will struggle to retain the presidency in the July 2004 election. Her former security minister and leader of the small Democratic Party, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, now has a significant lead in the opinion polls.

There will be few economic policy initiatives until after the election period, but Bank Indonesia (the central bank) will take a leading role in ensuring stability in macroeconomic policy. Real GDP growth is expected to strengthen in 2004-05, in line with stronger export demand from the OECD and China together with election-related spending this year. Annual inflation is forecast to average 5.6% in 2004-05, and a current-account surplus will be maintained, although it will fall as a share of GDP.