A second, and final, round of the presidential election will take place on
September 20th. The most likely contenders are the incumbent, Megawati
Soekarnoputri, and Democratic party leader, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The election is likely to be close but the Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Yudhoyono to be elected. If Mr Yudhoyono is successful, a more pro-reform, progressive administration is likely.

The onerous debt-servicing burden suggests that fiscal policy will have to remain tight, although we expect a greater focus on reducing unemployment and poverty in 2005. Bank Indonesia (BI, the central bank) has also stated its intention to maintain a tight monetary bias, but falling inflation from end-2004 should enable interest rates to continue to fall.

Real GDP growth is expected to strengthen in 2004 owing to robust private consumption, but will moderate again in 2005 as the stimulus from electionrelated spending disappears. Annual inflation is forecast to average 6.2% in 2004-05, and a current-account surplus will be maintained, although it will fall as a share of GDP.