Risk Modeling, Assessment and Management, Second Edition, describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work integrates the art and science of risk analysis. It clearly shows how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. (c) Copyright 2002, The HW Wilson Company

TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- I Fundamentals of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management
1 Introduction
2 The Role of Modeling in the Risk Assessment Process
3 Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling
4 Decision Analysis
5 Multiobjective Trade-off Analysis
6 Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis
7 Bayes’ Theorem and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity

- II Advances in Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management
8 Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value
9 Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis
10 Multiobjective Risk-Impact Analysis Method
11 Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM
12 Statistics of Extremes: Sensitivity to Partitioning
13 Statistics of Extremes: Generalized Quantification of Risk
14 Fault Trees
15 Multiobjective Statistical Method
16 Software Risk Management