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  <title>How certainty transforms persuasion</title>
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   <placeTerm type="text">Boston</placeTerm>
   <publisher>Harvard Business School Publications</publisher>
   <dateIssued>September 2015</dateIssued>
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  <extent>p. 96 - 103</extent>
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 <note>Certainty&#13;
 profoundly shapes our behavior. The more certain we are of a &#13;
belief—regardless of its objective correctness—the greater its influence&#13;
 will be on what we do. People who are certain of their opinions are &#13;
more&#13;
likely to buy, buy sooner, and spend more; more willing to recommend &#13;
products; and more apt to resist challenges to their beliefs. Certainty &#13;
is the catalyst that turns attitudes into action. Imagine that two &#13;
customers flying Virgin America give the carrier&#13;
the same high rating—a 9 out of 10—on a satisfaction survey. Most &#13;
marketers, seeing that the customers are both highly satisfied, assume &#13;
they’ll behave similarly—that they’re equally likely to fly Virgin &#13;
America again, recommend it to friends, and so on. But&#13;
their behavior depends less on their stated opinion than on how firmly &#13;
they hold it. Suppose that one of the Virgin customers is a frequent &#13;
flier and has had reliably good experiences. She is likely to be very &#13;
certain of her favorable attitude and to remain&#13;
a loyal customer. The other may have flown just once on the carrier. &#13;
She’s probably less certain of her opinion—wondering whether future &#13;
experiences would be different—and therefore less likely than the &#13;
frequent flier to choose Virgin again. They may hold the&#13;
same view, but if one of them is more certain of that view than the &#13;
other, she’ll be the better customer. Despite the voluminous body of &#13;
research on the influence of certainty on behavior, it is poorly &#13;
understood in business and rarely measured or put to use.&#13;
As a result, organizations overlook one of the most potent tools of &#13;
persuasion at their disposal. In this article, the authors identify four&#13;
 levers for systematically increasing certainty: consensus (people &#13;
become more certain of their opinions when they perceive&#13;
that others share them); repetition (expressing a position many times &#13;
increases certainty); ease (the more readily an idea comes to mind, the &#13;
more certain we are of it); and defense (standing up for your beliefs &#13;
increases your conviction about them). [ABSTRACT&#13;
FROM AUTHOR] &lt;br&gt;</note>
 <note type="statement of responsibility"></note>
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 <identifier type="isbn">00178012</identifier>
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