Certainty
profoundly shapes our behavior. The more certain we are of a
belief—regardless of its objective correctness—the greater its influence
will be on what we do. People who are certain of their opinions are
more
likely to buy, buy sooner, and spend more; more willing to recommend
products; and more apt to resist challenges to their beliefs. Certainty
is the catalyst that turns attitudes into action. Imagine that two
customers flying Virgin America give the carrier
the same high rating—a 9 out of 10—on a satisfaction survey. Most
marketers, seeing that the customers are both highly satisfied, assume
they’ll behave similarly—that they’re equally likely to fly Virgin
America again, recommend it to friends, and so on. But
their behavior depends less on their stated opinion than on how firmly
they hold it. Suppose that one of the Virgin customers is a frequent
flier and has had reliably good experiences. She is likely to be very
certain of her favorable attitude and to remain
a loyal customer. The other may have flown just once on the carrier.
She’s probably less certain of her opinion—wondering whether future
experiences would be different—and therefore less likely than the
frequent flier to choose Virgin again. They may hold the
same view, but if one of them is more certain of that view than the
other, she’ll be the better customer. Despite the voluminous body of
research on the influence of certainty on behavior, it is poorly
understood in business and rarely measured or put to use.
As a result, organizations overlook one of the most potent tools of
persuasion at their disposal. In this article, the authors identify four
levers for systematically increasing certainty: consensus (people
become more certain of their opinions when they perceive
that others share them); repetition (expressing a position many times
increases certainty); ease (the more readily an idea comes to mind, the
more certain we are of it); and defense (standing up for your beliefs
increases your conviction about them). [ABSTRACT
FROM AUTHOR]