Since
1980 global corporate profits have grown at an unprecedented pace, increasing
their share of global GDP by 30%. North American and Western European
multinationals have been the biggest beneficiaries, capturing more than half of
corporate profits by leveraging their scale and exploiting unprecedented
opportunities for reducing costs. This remarkable era is now coming to an end.
Growth is slowing, costs are rising, and new rivals from emerging economies and
from the technology sector are changing the rules of the game. The authors
forecast that in the decade ahead profits will continue to increase in absolute
terms, but they will fall to 7.9% of global GDP—about what they were when the
boom began. To maintain their lead, executives in Western multinationals must
consider the following responses. Be paranoid. Instead of focusing internally,
executives in Western firms need to understand their new rivals. Seek out
patient capital. Emerging-market firms and technology companies often take a
long view, building their market share over years at the expense of short-term
profits. Radically self-disrupt. Companies must overcome strategic inertia by
reallocating capital as conditions change. Build new intellectual assets. The
most profitable businesses are in idea-intensive industries, so intellectual
capital such as data and algorithms is a prime asset. Go to war for talent. As
populations age and talent becomes scarce, now is the time for human capital
management to become a strategic priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]