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  <title>The overvaluation trap</title>
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  <place>
   <placeTerm type="text">Boston</placeTerm>
   <publisher>Harvard Business School Publications</publisher>
   <dateIssued>December 2015</dateIssued>
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  <extent>p. 102 - 109</extent>
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 <note>In 2007, Chuck Prince, then the CEO of Citigroup, made a notorious &#13;
comment about the subprime mortgage market: “As long as the music’s &#13;
playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” Soon &#13;
after, the financial system crashed, and that remark came to be seen as a&#13;
 cavalier justification for excessive risk taking by the bank. But &#13;
authors Martin and Kemper raise another possibility: Prince may have &#13;
been painted into a corner, because Citigroup’s stock was indefensibly &#13;
overvalued. The only way the bank could earn the unrealistically high &#13;
returns shareholders expected was through ever more dangerous &#13;
activities. The overvaluation trap was first identified by Michael &#13;
Jensen in a 2005 article examining the dot-com bubble. He noted that it &#13;
often affects entire sectors and that in response to it executives tend &#13;
to adopt two strategies: investing in hot, hyped technologies (as Global&#13;
 Crossing did with fiber-optic cable) and glamorous acquisitions &#13;
(Nortel’s downfall). And when investment opportunities start to dry up, &#13;
firms may turn to financial manipulation (think WorldCom) to prop up &#13;
their overpriced equity. Martin and Kemper point out that today &#13;
companies in the pharmaceutical and oil sectors are caught in this same &#13;
trap. Their market caps are spectacularly high. But massive spending on &#13;
R&amp;amp;D is not producing more new drugs, and ever greater investment in &#13;
oil reserve exploration is only exacerbating the glut of supply. The &#13;
dance may be ending for both industries, and their executives need to &#13;
figure out new and more-realistic narratives for value creation. &#13;
[ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]&lt;br&gt;</note>
 <note type="statement of responsibility"></note>
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