Why do some transformative technologies dominate the market quickly,
while others take decades to catch on? It’s a function not just of the
technologies themselves, say the authors, but also of their broader
ecosystems (electric cars, for example, need a network of charging
stations). The ecosystems of the legacy technologies matter too—they can
sometimes be improved enough to prolong the life of the old technology.
Analyzing the ecosystem dynamics in your industry can help you predict
how quickly technological change will occur. For example, if the new
technology is surrounded by viable complements and there’s little room
to improve the old technology’s ecosystem, substitution is rapid
(creative destruction). When the opposite conditions hold—the new
technology’s ecosystem needs work and the old technology can capitalize
on improvements in the established ecosystem—the pace of substitution is
very slow (robust resilience). The authors describe two other possible
scenarios: robust coexistence of the two technologies, and the illusion
of resistance (the old technology seems competitive for some time but
quickly succumbs once the new technology’s ecosystem is ready to roll).
If you understand which scenario applies to you, you can better assess
the threat of disruptive change—and use the authors’ insights to respond
effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]